How The Fan GM works
Think like your team's GM: contracts, the cap, and every game in plain English.
Live data
Schedules, scores, box scores, standings, playoff seeds, injuries, depth charts, betting lines, ESPN's matchup predictor, and season stats come from ESPN's public site APIs.
Contracts
Every contract figure is entered by hand from public reporting (team announcements, reporters, and outlets such as ProFootballTalk, NFL.com, and team beat sites). Each card links its sources and date. We do not copy cap-database tables. Deals we cannot verify are left out.
Latest news
Headlines come from each team's official site feed and ESPN, updated every hour, with a short strip on the homepage and each team desk and a full news page. Headlines link to the original source.
Playoff chances
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns. These percentages are The Fan GM's model, labeled as such on the site — not an official league figure and not another outlet's odds.
Written text
Briefs, previews, and recaps are generated from the data and never add numbers that are not in it. League ranks are computed across all 32 teams. We never make our own game pick; win chances and lines on previews are ESPN's and the sportsbook's.
Terms in plain English
What is a cap hit?
The part of a contract that counts against the salary cap in one season: salary, plus the signing bonus spread evenly over the deal (up to five years), plus other bonuses. It is not the same as the cash paid that year.
What does "guaranteed" mean?
Money the player gets even if he is cut. "Fully guaranteed at signing" is the strongest kind. Other guarantees lock in on set dates, which is why reported totals for the same deal often differ.
What are void years?
Placeholder years added to the end of a deal so a bonus can be spread over more seasons, which lowers today's cap hit. The deal voids before those years are played, and any bonus not yet counted hits the cap at once as dead money.
What's a backload score?
The biggest cap hit left on the deal divided by this season's cap hit, from one reported schedule. 1.0x is flat; 3x means the bill triples later. Restructures and void years push it up.
What is dead money?
Cap charges for a player who is no longer on the team, usually signing bonus that had not been counted yet when he was cut or traded.
What is a restructure?
Turning salary into a signing bonus so it can be spread over later years. It frees cap room now and makes future cap hits bigger.
How do playoff seeds work?
Seven teams in each conference make the playoffs. The four division winners are seeds 1 to 4, ranked by record. The three best other teams are seeds 5 to 7. Only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round bye.
What is the win chance?
ESPN's matchup predictor, built on its Football Power Index. It simulates the game many times, and the percentage is how often each team wins. It is ESPN's number, not ours.
How do I read the line?
The point spread from a sportsbook. "GB -3" means the Packers are expected to win by about 3 points. The total (over/under) is the expected combined score of both teams.
What do the injury designations mean?
Out: will not play this week. Doubtful: unlikely to play. Questionable: uncertain to play. Injured reserve: out for at least four games. "Starter" means listed first at his spot on ESPN's current depth chart.
How are the ranks computed?
We rank all 32 teams on ESPN season totals. 1st is best, so for points allowed, yards allowed, and giveaways, fewer is better.
What does "games behind" mean?
How many wins one team needs to make up on another, counting each win by the trailing team or loss by the leading team as half a game. It ignores tiebreakers.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
Not affiliated with the NFL or any team. No official logos are used.