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Washington Commanders

3-5-13rd EastOutside top 7W1 streak
Nextvs BengalsMon, Nov 23 · 7:15 p.m. CT · CIN -3.526.5%win chance

The Fan GM model

7%playoff chances
7%Win the East
<1%No. 1 seed

The Commanders make the playoffs in 7% of 10,000 simulated seasons.

Currently outside the NFC top 7. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.

How does The Fan GM playoff model work?

Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.

What if they win or lose vs the Bengals

A win over the Bengals would move them to 15%; a loss, to 5%.

Playoff path and standings

The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13

Commanders are 3-5-1 with the Bengals up next

The Commanders are 3-5-1 and have won 2 of their last 5. They are on a 1-game winning streak. That has them 3rd in the NFC East, 2 games behind the Giants, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 11 seed in the NFC right now, a wild-card spot.

Stefon Diggs caught a 32-yard go-ahead touchdown with 57 seconds left, and Washington won 24-21 at the Giants to reach 3-5-1.

Keep reading · Past reads

Last game · Week 10W 24-21at Giants249 Jayden Daniels passing yardsRecap →Playoff chances7%Division 7% · No. 1 seed <1%The Fan GM modelFull odds →Flagship contract$10.3MJayden Daniels: Rookie contract for now, a huge extension coming2026 cap hitAll 7 deals →Injuries6 out/doubtfulAthan Kaliakmanis Out, Colson Yankoff Out, Isaac Yiadom OutInjury report →Where they rank4thin giveaways (int + lost fumbles)Weakest: 30th in third-down conversion %All stats →

NFC East

Division hub
  1. 1NYGGiantsDiv 2-1-1 · PF 203 · PA 196 · L15-3-1Leader3
  2. 2DALCowboysDiv 2-1 · PF 246 · PA 236 · W14-51.5 GB–
  3. 3WSHCommandersDiv 2-2-1 · PF 196 · PA 223 · W13-5-12 GB–
  4. 4PHIEaglesDiv 1-3 · PF 148 · PA 221 · L72-73.5 GB–

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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.