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Dallas Cowboys

4-52nd EastOutside top 7W1 streak
Nextvs 49ersSun, Nov 15 · 3:25 p.m. CT · SF -3.535.9%win chance

The Fan GM model

25%playoff chances
24%Win the East
<1%No. 1 seed

The Cowboys make the playoffs in 25% of 10,000 simulated seasons.

Currently outside the NFC top 7. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.

How does The Fan GM playoff model work?

Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.

What if they win or lose vs the 49ers

A win over the 49ers would move them to 39%; a loss, to 19%.

Playoff path and standings

The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13

Cowboys host the 49ers Sunday

The Cowboys are 4-5 and have won 2 of their last 5. They are on a 1-game winning streak. That has them 2nd in the NFC East, 1.5 games behind the Giants, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 10 seed in the NFC right now, a wild-card spot.

Rookie Caleb Downs sealed the 27-23 win at Indianapolis, which got Dallas to 4-5 heading into Sunday's home game against San Francisco.

Keep reading · Past reads

Last game · Week 9W 27-23at Colts335 Dak Prescott passing yardsRecap →Playoff chances25%Division 24% · No. 1 seed <1%The Fan GM modelFull odds →Flagship contract1.96xDak Prescott: $43.7 million now, $76 million on paper next yearbackload scoreAll 9 deals →Injuries3 out/doubtfulJake Ferguson Out, P.J. Locke Out, Tyler Goodson Out7 questionableInjury report →Where they rank5thin third-down conversion %Weakest: 29th in yards allowed per gameAll stats →

NFC East

Division hub
  1. 1NYGGiantsDiv 2-1-1 · PF 203 · PA 196 · L15-3-1Leader3
  2. 2DALCowboysDiv 2-1 · PF 246 · PA 236 · W14-51.5 GB–
  3. 3WSHCommandersDiv 2-2-1 · PF 196 · PA 223 · W13-5-12 GB–
  4. 4PHIEaglesDiv 1-3 · PF 148 · PA 221 · L72-73.5 GB–

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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.