The Fan GM model
The Cardinals make the playoffs in less than 1% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
Currently outside the NFC top 7. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
What if they win or lose vs the Rams
A win over the Rams would move them to <1%; a loss, to <1%.
The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13
Cardinals host the Rams Sunday, and it is a rematch
The Cardinals are 3-6 and have won 2 of their last 5. They are on a 1-game losing streak. That has them 4th in the NFC West, 4.5 games behind the 49ers, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 15 seed in the NFC right now, a wild-card spot.
The Cardinals placed quarterback Gardner Minshew (arm) and wide receiver Michael Wilson (neck) on injured reserve, and rookie Carson Beck will make his first NFL start Sunday against the Rams (azcardinals.com).
NFC West
Division hubLatest news
- From Scout Team To Starting Lineup: Cardinals Receivers Get A Chance To ShineCardinals official site · Nov 12, 6:15 p.m. CT
- Cardinals' rookie QB Carson Beck makes his NFL debut against stellar Rams defenseESPN · Nov 12, 5:33 p.m. CT
- Josh Johnson Had Already Earned Trust From Mike LaFleurCardinals official site · Nov 12, 4:39 p.m. CT
- Carson Beck starting for the CardinalsESPN · Nov 12, 12:02 p.m. CT
Updated Nov 13, 9:03 a.m. CT. Headlines link to the original source.
The Fan GM Weekly
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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Injury designations tagged as team reporting are cited supplements where ESPN's weekly report is missing or behind. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.