The Fan GM model
The 49ers make the playoffs in more than 99% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
Currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
What if they win or lose at the Cowboys
A win over the Cowboys would move them to >99%; a loss, to 99%.
The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13
49ers visit the Cowboys Sunday
The 49ers are 7-1 and have won 4 of their last 5. They are on a 1-game winning streak. That has them first in the NFC West, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 1 seed in the NFC right now, which would mean a division title.
Brandon Aiyuk is on an unpaid roster exemption that runs through Nov. 23, and Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area says the 49ers are likely to keep him until it expires (49ers Webzone, Nov 10).
NFC West
Division hubLatest news
- 49ers not overlooking Cowboys amid NFC playoff pushESPN · Nov 12, 11:48 p.m. CT
- Cowboys host NFC-leading 49ers as they seek elusive winning streak under SchottenheimerESPN · Nov 12, 10:52 a.m. CT
- Morning Report: Allen Arrives to The Bay, 49ers Preview Week 10 Against Cowboys 🗞️49ers official site · Nov 12, 9:08 a.m. CT
Updated Nov 13, 9:03 a.m. CT. Headlines link to the original source.
The Fan GM Weekly
The newsletter is launching soon. Until then, follow every brief, preview, and recap by RSS.
Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.