The Fan GM model
The Seahawks make the playoffs in 40% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
Currently outside the NFC top 7. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
What if they win or lose at the Raiders
A win over the Raiders would move them to 47%; a loss, to 28%.
The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13
Seahawks visit the Raiders Sunday
The Seahawks are 5-4 and have won 2 of their last 5. They are on a 1-game winning streak. That has them 2nd in the NFC West, 2.5 games behind the 49ers, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 8 seed in the NFC right now, a wild-card spot.
Sam Darnold (quadricep and rib injuries) and Quenton Nelson (a minor knee procedure) will not play Sunday at Las Vegas; coach Mike Macdonald said Drew Lock is expected to start (Seahawks.com).
NFC West
Division hubLatest news
- Drew Lock set to start vs. RaidersESPN · Nov 12, 10:09 p.m. CT
- Week 10 Injury Report: Seahawks at RaidersSeahawks official site · Nov 12, 6:19 p.m. CT
- Seahawks Prepare For Raiders Opponent With Familiar Play-Caller Debuting QB Fernando MendozaSeahawks official site · Nov 12, 6:14 p.m. CT
- Raiders QB Fernando Mendoza’s first start will come against the Seahawks' NFL-best defenseESPN · Nov 12, 5:29 p.m. CT
Updated Nov 13, 9:03 a.m. CT. Headlines link to the original source.
The Fan GM Weekly
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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.