The Fan GM model
The Lions make the playoffs in 81% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
Currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
What if they win or lose vs the Patriots
A win over the Patriots would move them to 85%; a loss, to 72%.
The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13
Lions face the Patriots Sunday in Munich
The Lions are 6-2 and have won 4 of their last 5. They are on a 4-game winning streak. That has them 2nd in the NFC North, 0.5 games behind the Bears, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 5 seed in the NFC right now, a wild-card spot.
Detroit added safety Andre Cisco from the Jets on Nov 9, sending a 2028 sixth-round pick.
NFC North
Division hubLatest news
- LIONS DAILY: K Jake Bates expects to have a 'pinch-me moment' SundayLions official site · Nov 13, 8:30 a.m. CT
- Lions vs. Patriots Week 10 preview | The Official Detroit Lions PodcastLions official site · Nov 13, 6:00 a.m. CT
- NOTEBOOK: Lions ready for 'home away from home' experience in MunichLions official site · Nov 13, 2:43 a.m. CT
- Lions vs. Patriots practice report: Nov. 12Lions official site · Nov 12, 3:00 p.m. CT
Updated Nov 13, 9:03 a.m. CT. Headlines link to the original source.
The Fan GM Weekly
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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.