The Fan GM model
The Vikings make the playoffs in 87% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
Currently the No. 6 seed in the NFC. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
What if they win or lose at the Packers
A win over the Packers would move them to 96%; a loss, to 80%.
The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13
Vikings visit the Packers Sunday, and it is a rematch
The Vikings are 6-2 and have won 3 of their last 5. They are on a 2-game losing streak. That has them 3rd in the NFC North, 0.5 games behind the Bears, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 6 seed in the NFC right now, a wild-card spot.
Minnesota traded a 2027 third-round pick to the Raiders on Nov 10 for quarterback Kirk Cousins, two days after Carson Wentz started in place of Kyler Murray.
NFC North
Division hubLatest news
- NFL Week 10 preview: Picks, predictions, schedule, betting odds, fantasy tipsESPN · Nov 13, 5:48 a.m. CT
- Vikings 'hyped' to welcome back 'leader' Cousins on 1st day of practiceESPN · Nov 12, 8:53 p.m. CT
- NFL Expert Picks: Vikings and Packers Rivalry Renews for Week 10 at Lambeau FieldVikings official site · Nov 12, 6:33 p.m. CT
- Updated Vikings at Packers Injury Report for Week 10 of 2026Vikings official site · Nov 12, 5:00 p.m. CT
Updated Nov 13, 9:03 a.m. CT. Headlines link to the original source.
The Fan GM Weekly
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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.