The Fan GM model
The Packers make the playoffs in 63% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
Currently the No. 7 seed in the NFC. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
What if they win or lose vs the Vikings
A win over the Vikings would move them to 75%; a loss, to 48%.
The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13
Packers host the Vikings Sunday, and it is a rematch
The Packers are 6-3 and have won 4 of their last 5. They are on a 2-game winning streak. That has them 4th in the NFC North, 1 game behind the Bears, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 7 seed in the NFC right now, a wild-card spot.
Josh Jacobs will miss time after the Packers announced Nov 9 that he will have surgery this week on a broken finger.
NFC North
Division hubLatest news
- Packers' defense ready for another round with Kirk CousinsPackers official site · Nov 13, 9:00 a.m. CT
- Inbox: There are others on the rise as wellPackers official site · Nov 13, 8:30 a.m. CT
- Packers-Vikings Injury Report | Nov. 12, 2026Packers official site · Nov 12, 3:56 p.m. CT
- Kirk Cousins begins his 2nd stint with Vikings as they face the Packers in an NFC North showdownESPN · Nov 12, 3:50 p.m. CT
Updated Nov 13, 9:03 a.m. CT. Headlines link to the original source.
The Fan GM Weekly
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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Injury designations tagged as team reporting are cited supplements where ESPN's weekly report is missing or behind. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.