The Fan GM model
The Bears make the playoffs in 91% of 10,000 simulated seasons.
Currently the No. 2 seed in the NFC. This is The Fan GM's model, not an official league figure and not another site's odds.
How does The Fan GM playoff model work?
Each team is rated by its point differential per game so far this season. A remaining game’s home-win probability comes from a normal curve around that rating gap, plus 2.5 points for home field (typical NFL margin spread of 13.5 points). We play out the rest of the league schedule 10,000 times and apply NFL-style tiebreakers to see how often each team makes the playoffs, wins its division, or earns the No. 1 seed. Simulated games always produce a winner (no regular-season ties). Tiebreakers used are head-to-head, division record, common games, conference record, strength of victory, strength of schedule, and point differential; leftover ties use a fixed team order, not coin flips or net touchdowns.
What if they win or lose vs the Saints
A win over the Saints would move them to 94%; a loss, to 83%.
The 60-second read · Fri, Nov 13
Bears are 7-2 with the Saints up next
The Bears are 7-2 and have won 4 of their last 5. They are on a 4-game winning streak. That has them first in the NFC North, and ESPN's standings list them as the No. 2 seed in the NFC right now, which would mean a division title.
Chicago acquired All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons from Tennessee on Oct 29, sending 2027 and 2028 first-round picks and a 2027 fourth-round pick, and getting a 2028 fifth back.
NFC North
Division hubLatest news
- NFC North: Bears win division? Cousins has Vikes in command?ESPN · Nov 13, 7:12 a.m. CT
- Postales desde Madrid con Charles "Peanut" Tillman | 11 de noviembreBears official site · Nov 12, 10:12 a.m. CT
Updated Nov 13, 9:03 a.m. CT. Headlines link to the original source.
The Fan GM Weekly
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Data note: scores, schedules, standings, injuries, lines, and ESPN's predictor come from ESPN's public APIs, as of Nov 13, 2026, 10:25 a.m. CT. Injury designations tagged as team reporting are cited supplements where ESPN's weekly report is missing or behind. Deadline and roster notes in previews and 60-second reads come from official announcements and cited reporting. Other written text is generated from the ESPN data and adds no numbers of its own.